The party opposite the President has traditionally performed well in Congressional mid-term elections. Jeb Bush discussed this with us in the first part of our outlook on the 2018 mid-terms. Another point to consider is the election map. In the Senate, in particular, a shifting of power could be difficult for Democrats as they face what David Axelrod described to us as a “structural barrier”: 10 Democratic senators face re-election in states Donald Trump won in 2016. The House of Representatives has a better chance to flip, however, according to Axelrod. “More than several” suburban swing districts could shift the balance to Democrats this fall, he says. “Based on the results I saw in 2017, this is going to be a real battleground.”
See Axelrod’s analysis of the upcoming election, including the role he thinks President Trump might play, in the video above.